Systematic review of theoretical literature on impact evaluation methods to evaluate public policies

Abstract

Public programs and policies are designed and implemented with the aim of changing a certain behavior or aspect of a person’s life, such as their education, income, diet, etc. To achieve its objectives, such implementation is based on theory of change. However, determining whether these public programs or policies achieve the expected impacts or results is a task that is often not addressed by the implementers of the programs or policies. Impact evaluation of public policies is a fundamental action within public management. It allows information to be obtained on the impacts that these policies or programs have on the beneficiary population and, thus, make it possible to study the option of expanding the scope, modifying, suggesting changes or stopping execution. In this systematic review, 22 impact evaluation studies were examined. The temporality of the studies ranges from 1983 to 2017. One of the main findings refers to the importance of estimating a credible counterfactual that allows an adequate identification of the impact of the application of a certain public policy. Another aspect to highlight is that the methodology to evaluate a certain public policy depends on the data available and the characteristics of the intervention. Finally, the econometric models used to estimate the impacts are by no means rigid models. Much depends on the ability and creativity of the researcher to formulate a methodological proposal that meets the planned objective.